NAB Morning Call Choppy markets settle as Middle East war risk fades
Feb 17, 2026
Rodrigo Catril, markets strategist and economist at NAB, offers crisp market analysis. He discusses how Iran talks eased risk and calmed oil and metals. He covers tech volatility from AI speculation and the RBA minutes weighing further hikes. He also reviews currency impacts, Canada’s slow disinflation, UK job cooling, and upcoming Australian and RBNZ data.
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Choppy Markets Calmed By Iran Developments
- Markets were choppy intraday due to Iran and AI fears but settled as tensions eased.
- The pound fell sharply after UK unemployment rose, showing sensitivity to labour data.
Iran Talks Shift Oil And Risk Sentiment
- Talks about Iran moved markets from risk-on to relief and drove a notable fall in oil.
- Rodrigo Catril warns the talks have a long way to go and the real test is sanctions versus nuclear concessions.
AI Sparks Cross-Section Volatility In Tech
- Tech saw high cross-section volatility driven by fresh AI speculation rather than clear fundamentals.
- Index levels barely moved while individual stocks and sectors swung widely.