Excess Returns The Real Estate Bust Was the Plan | Louis-Vincent Gave on China's Brute Force Growth Strategy
38 snips
Nov 26, 2025 
Louis-Vincent Gave, founder of Gavekal Research and a macroeconomic investor, sheds light on China’s impressive economic transformation. He discusses why Western views misjudge China’s growth model and how the country has deftly responded to US pressures like the semiconductor embargo. Gave explores China's rapid ascent in engineering and EV dominance, contrasts its open-source AI approach with the US, and argues that fears surrounding Taiwan are overblown. He also predicts a multi-year bull market for China, highlighting the undervalued renminbi as a key investment consideration.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
China Echoes 2009 U.S. Conditions
- China today resembles the U.S. in 2009: cheap energy, cheap labor, cheap capital for targeted industries.
- That mix supports a multi-year bull market similar to the US post-2009 recovery.
Cheap, New Power Grid Lowers Costs
- China's electricity costs are very low due to new grid, nuclear, and solar investments.
- Some provinces experience free daytime power during peak solar months because of overcapacity.
Open AI Emerged From Necessity
- China’s AI approach is open-source and modular because it lacked access to high-end chips.
- Western AI favored closed ecosystems that lock customers and charge for customization.