Mike's Minute: Luxon quitting would be an epic mistake

Staying the course when things are tough is a skill. I think you either have it or you don’t.

Chris Luxon will not get rolled, but he may quit. That would be a mistake of epic proportions.

What would drive me, if I was him, would be rational thought.

1) This election is not about personality, it's about economic management. On that the Government are tracking well.

2) The internal polling within the National Party is fine. It does not reflect the Curia poll that the media made so much of.

The unfortunate thing about Friday's pre-hyped release is it came at the same time Luxon had had a bad week on the war.

That week by the way, was nowhere near as bad as some made it out to be. But the two events came together for a good week-end headline.

3) This would be the bit that would focus my mind - it's only Hipkins.

Seriously, you're only lining up Labour as an opponent. On the economy. The people who wrecked the place two and a bit years ago are asking the voter to come back and do a bit more of it. You don’t believe me? Read Thomas Coughlan's piece with Barbara Edmonds.

4) Even if you take the poll seriously, which you shouldn’t. There is a one seat shift, so it's within a margin of error.

5) The economy will save you. You campaigned on a turnaround and the turnaround is real.

Given we are voting on economics, the National leader is not a deal-breaker.

If you are voting on interest rates and jobs, does Chris Bishop or Erica Stanford really change your view of your lot?

They are good people and good talents, but they aren't game-changers and they won't get you a job any more than Luxon will.

6) Having done the hard yards, why quit now? The prize is just down the road and with a second term perceptions change.

7) The coalition as an operation is a success. Three parties have, and do, work well together. It's MMP in action.

The alternative? Hipkins talking about a minority Government, a Green Party and extremism and a Māori Party that will not be back in anywhere near the numbers they have now. It's not a combo.

This must all sit heavily with Luxon. How could it not?

But that is what leadership is about. That is what you chased and bought into.

If you think you will fail you will automatically be successful.

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