Tim Hayes, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Ned Davis Research, offers insights into market dynamics. He unpacks the 360° weight-of-the-evidence framework, explaining the interplay between price, sentiment, macro factors, and valuation. Hayes discusses the current secular bull market amidst rising bear risks and underscores the significance of real breadth vs. dead-cat bounces. He also explores the shifting stock-bond correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, and why gold remains pivotal for investors. His core advice is to stay objective and flexible in asset allocation.
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Confirm Thrusts With Longer Moving Averages
Look for short-term (10-day) breadth thrusts, then confirm with 50- and 200-day indicators before concluding a sustainable rally.
Combine sentiment extremes, thrusts, and longer moving-average confirmation to build conviction.
insights INSIGHT
Bond Yield Breakout Could Tip Equities
The stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 when yields rose amid inflation fears, then reverted as yields traded in a range.
A breakout of the 10-year above ~5.0–5.25% could reintroduce a negative shock to equities.
insights INSIGHT
Mega‑Cap Concentration Is Systemic Risk
Extreme mega-cap concentration, led by U.S. tech, raises systemic risk if valuations reverse and breadth deteriorates.
Concentration unwinding can drag U.S. indices lower and spark broader market weakness.
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Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold’s secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You’ll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim’s timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible.
Topics Covered
NDR’s 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”)
How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked out
Secular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turn
Reading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could mean
Concentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the world
Where value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotations
Gold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocation
Practical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold
“No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicators
Using historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from them
Tim’s core lesson: you can’t forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-driven
Timestamps (YouTube Chapters)
00:00 Don’t fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context)
01:06 Intro and why NDR’s process beats single charts
02:58 NDR’s 360° framework and composite models
05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation
08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record
Excess Returns