NAB Morning Call Out of Office
Feb 16, 2026
Sally Auld, NAB markets economist who tracks macro and market trends, guides listeners through jittery Japan GDP figures and mixed Eurozone industrial signals. She discusses cautious optimism for New Zealand, a bullish yet underprotected fund manager mood, a multi-year US dollar downtrend and how Middle East tensions are keeping oil prices supported.
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Japan GDP Softness Masks Domestic Strength
- Japan's Q4 GDP looked soft but domestic final demand rose strongly, showing underlying consumer activity.
- Sally Auld warns volatility came from inventory swings, so headline softness may be temporary.
European IP Downturn Is Sector-Driven
- Eurozone December industrial production fell but the quarterly picture was mildly positive with near 2% annualised growth.
- Sally Auld attributes volatility to autos and pharmaceuticals and expects reasonable industrial performance in 2026.
Don't Panic Over Patchy Recovery Data
- Treat uneven recovery data calmly and avoid overreacting to single weak releases like PSI or card spending.
- Sally Auld suggests focusing on quarter trends rather than month-to-month noise during recoveries.