Excess Returns Nothing Has a Right to Exist in Your Portfolio | What the Last 15 Years Has Taught Us
Dec 24, 2025
Hosts dive into the disruption of modern portfolio theory over the last 15 years, questioning traditional market assumptions. There's a fascinating debate on the 'Sell America' narrative influenced by fund manager surveys. Gold emerges as a hot topic, outperforming other assets and drawing comparisons with Bitcoin. They also tackle the challenges of diversified portfolios amid concentrated benchmarks, advising on how to handle client emotions around gold and crypto. Finally, expect a mix of holiday cheer as they share light-hearted personal traditions and movie favorites.
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Surveys Spark Narratives, Not Personal Plans
- Institutional survey positioning (e.g., Bank of America fund manager survey) often sparks market narratives.
- Chasing those flips can punish retail investors because institutions can swing huge allocations quickly.
Timing Killed Some Sell-America Returns
- Non-U.S. outperformance peaked in April and has since given up much of its gains.
- Timing rotations after narrative peaks materially altered realized returns for many investors.
Gold Became A Psychological Commodity
- Gold acted as a powerful psychological commodity and inflation hedge for many allocators in 2025.
- Most large institutions lack strategic gold allocations, so its rally surprised conventional portfolio constructions.