Mike's Minute: My first election year prediction

Kudos to Phillip Mills. 

He of the gym empire and, as it turns out, this election year's star turn in the donation department. 

His money for the Opportunity Party is the first large declared donation. 

I like it for a couple of reasons. Business owners and leaders too often display a fear when it comes to views and support and commentary. 

I learned it sadly during Covid. The anger privately never matched the anger publicly from some of the nation's biggest names and businesses, because they feared retribution from the Government of the day. 

Mills, like any owner, especially in this day and age, risks pushback from a public he wants to give him money to turn up at his place to pump iron. 

It's way easier to keep your head down, so good on him. 

Sadly, he has wasted his money. But that is the beauty of election year and democracy – we are all free to do the same. 

TOP will not make it the way Mills thinks they will. 

Personally, I kind of hope I'm wrong. The whole MMP “thing” was about greater representation and if TOP cracked it, I would be pleased to see another player. 

Sadly, it is not to be because TOP are too nuanced and there is no obvious gap to fill. They are the middle of the road music station looking to find a spot between the Hits, Coast, and the Breeze. Except unlike radio where entry is free, in politics you need 5%, and 5% is a lot. 

As I have said before, the Gareth Morgan era was their opening. The easier route is an electorate with plenty of choice already, get a high profile player like Morgan, split the vote, win the seat and the coattail at about 2% might get you not one, but two MPs. 

They have no Morgans. Even Raf Manji, who ran in Christchurch last time and had some profile, didn’t do it. 

So as we sit here this morning, dollars to donuts, you can't even name the leader or any member of the party. 

And as for their polices, they are a mix of obscure and overlap. In other words, a lot of what they think is already in the Parliament if that’s what you want. 

In simple terms, our Parliament is full. Six parties are all we want. 

Phillip has $50,000 that says I'm wrong. But of all the predictions I will make this year, this is right up there on the confidence scale. 

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