RenMac RenMac Off-Script: A Probabilities Business
Nov 7, 2025
Explore the rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly oblivious to soft labor data. Delve into Trump's tariff maneuvers and the potential pushback from Congress and SCOTUS. Unpack the disconnect between affordability issues and political rhetoric, while analyzing market breadth through 52-week highs and lows. Discover why crypto is stalling and how missing payroll reports complicate economic visibility. Plus, examine the implications of the government shutdown on the economy.
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Run A Balanced Long–Short Book
- Run a balanced, incremental long-short book to profit from both vulnerable winners and losers.
- Jeff DeGraff advises pressing deterioration incrementally instead of making broad bearish calls.
IEPA Refunds Could Pressure Treasury Issuance
- The IEPA tariff refunds could total about $90bn, forcing Treasury to issue more debt and affecting bond yields.
- Steve Pellett flags the refund process as complex and consequential for fixed income markets.
Labor Market Signals Are Cooling
- Multiple labor indicators show cooling: rising layoffs, weak ADP, and ISM employment below 50.
- Neil Dutta argues the labor market is gradually cooling and warns against rationalizing away deteriorating signals.