Alfalfa Podcast 159. Nick’s Juicy Election Bet, Stephen’s DEGEN trade + Why Gov Regulation is a SCAM
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Sep 22, 2023 The podcast covers a range of topics including Formula One race, a bet made on the election, real world assets coming on chain, building the creator economy, Nick's degen trade, Stephen's Riot bet, Bill Gurley's talk on regulatory capture, regulation for AI and tech, and Arman's Techstar's experience.
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Mining Stocks As Levered Bitcoin Play
- Stephen flagged Riot (a Bitcoin miner) seasonality and high implied volatility as a levered way to trade Bitcoin upside.
- He suggested buying long-dated calls or leaps to capture both price delta and implied-vol spikes in Q4 rallies.
Size Miner Options Like Lottery Tickets
- Treat miner option plays as lottery tickets sized only for disposable capital and never risk more than you can lose.
- Use options to limit downside while capturing outsized upside from a volatility explosion tied to catalysts like ETF flows.
Regulatory Capture Entrenches Incumbents
- Bill Gurley argues regulatory capture lets incumbents shape laws to entrench power and block innovation.
- Examples include telecom, COVID tests, and health‑IT incentives where regulation advantaged incumbents and raised costs.