Excess Returns What a Global Regime Change Means for Investors | Julian Brigden
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Oct 9, 2025 
Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners and macro strategist, shares insights on today's volatile market. He argues we're in a once-in-a-generation macro opportunity due to policy shifts and dollar dynamics. Brigden emphasizes the need for tactical risk management and highlights the benefits of international assets over U.S. ones. He discusses inflation dynamics, the unusual hiring patterns, and how AI's impact on the job market will unfold more slowly than expected. He cautions against relying on bonds and explains the risks of an overly concentrated U.S. market.
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Bonds Lose Their Safe-Haven Role
- Bonds have acted like confiscation versus gold as real rates and policy shift.
- Expect a more inflationary policy mix and treat bonds skeptically as a safe cash alternative.
A Second Wave Of Inflation Is Plausible
- We may be entering a second inflation wave driven by tight labor and policy that runs it hot.
- Running growth with unemployment in the low 4s historically pushes wage and core service inflation higher.
Labor Fragility Can Accelerate Recession Risk
- The current 'no hiring, no firing' pattern makes employment fragile and can quickly flip into rising unemployment.
- Once layoffs start they tend to cascade, raising recession risk materially.