Eric Olander on China in the Global South

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Aug 1, 2024

Eric Olander, an expert in China's relations with the developing world and host of influential podcasts, shares his insights on China's diplomatic maneuvers across various regions. The discussion highlights tensions in the South China Sea involving the Philippines and the U.S. It also covers China's growing influence in Africa and Latin America, emphasizing the challenges the U.S. faces in offering competitive policies. Eric underscores the vital need for diverse perspectives on China’s impact in the Global South, moving beyond mainstream narratives.

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INSIGHT

Marcos' Shifting Stance

President Marcos has shifted his stance on invoking the US Mutual Defense Treaty.
His initial broad definition of an act of war has narrowed, likely due to domestic political pressures.

INSIGHT

ASEAN's Weakness

ASEAN's ability to address the South China Sea dispute is hampered by internal divisions and a weak structure.
Member states like Malaysia and Indonesia hold differing views on China's role, further complicating consensus.

INSIGHT

China's Mediation Role

China brokered a Palestinian unity deal, but its effectiveness is questioned by Middle East scholars.
China acts as a convener in areas where the US and Europe struggle to engage diplomatically.

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This week on Sinica, I'm joined by Eric Olander, host of the outstanding China in Africa Podcast and the indispensable China-Global South Podcast, and creator of the China-Global South Project. Eric's detailed and very current knowledge of China's relations across the developing world is on display in this whirlwind tour that takes us from the troubled waters of the South China Sea to China's diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, on to Subsaharan Africa and how Washington has struggled to create policies that can match what China offers, and to Latin America. He then zooms out and talks about what it all means in aggregate. Don't miss this show!

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2:39 The situation with the Philippines and the Second Thomas Shoal, and the U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty — the potential challenges in activating it on the U.S. side and President Marcos’ changing standards for invoking it

15:50 ASEAN’s difficulty in reaching consensus, and Myanmar as another ASEAN priority

18:53 China’s role as convener in brokering a “unity deal” for Palestine

23:02 The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC)

30:20 Why Africa is so hard to fit onto the U.S. foreign policy agenda and the lack of a forward-looking American vision for Africa

37:56 Geraud Neema’s disappointment with Washington’s talk about battery metals and critical minerals

42:22 The pushback from Mexico’s finance minister and Mexico’s concern over the growing number of imports from China

46:48 The trade surplus number and long-term concerns for China’s exports

49:35 Brazilian President Lula hints at willingness to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

51:51 How it all fits together, and how China has leveraged the Global South’s frustration over the U.S.-European-led international order

Recommendations:

Eric: Matt Pottinger’s The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, and Anne Stevenson-Yang’s Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy

Kaiser: Will Durant’s books from The Story of Civilization, especially The Age of Faith and The Reformation, as well as the audiobook versions read by Stefan Rudnicki

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