Global Security Briefing Taiwan's Strategic Balancing Act Amid US-China Tensions
Oct 15, 2025
Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones, a Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, explores Taiwan's precarious position amid escalating US-China tensions. He delves into China's shift towards grey-zone tactics and the implications of US policy under Trump. The discussion emphasizes the significance of Taiwan's societal resilience and defense reforms, alongside complexities in domestic politics that affect implementation. Additionally, they address the emerging Taiwan-Japan coast guard collaboration and how Taiwan's situation parallels Ukraine's geopolitical struggles.
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Domestic Politics Could Drive Risky Moves
- Xi's centralisation removed predictable succession, creating systemic political instability in China.
- Leaders might resort to limited military actions to consolidate domestic legitimacy if politically weakened.
Invest In Defence And Whole-Society Resilience
- Increase defence spending and whole-of-society resilience to demonstrate burden-sharing with the US.
- Use resilience training to free military resources for combat functions and strengthen deterrence.
Politics Complicate Resilience Reforms
- Resilience efforts risk politicisation in Taiwan's divided party landscape and may face trust barriers.
- The reforms aim to reduce military burdens by training civilians in first aid and infrastructure repair.