Global Security Briefing

Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI senior research fellow on Turkey and the Middle East, offers concise analysis of Turkey's evolving regional role. She discusses Turkey's stabilization-first approach versus classic peacebuilding. She explores Turkey's geoeconomic push via the Middle Corridor, maritime ambitions and Horn presence. She also outlines limits from capacity, domestic politics and complex hedging between Iran, NATO and regional powers.

The US and Israel have launched major strikes on Iran, triggering retaliation across the region and raising fears of wider war. As tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz and across the region, the implications extend far beyond the Middle East. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, and Dr Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a specialist on Iranian and regional politics and an Associate Fellow with RUSI, to analyse the regional and global significance of the crisis. This episode explores: What the US and Israel are seeking to achieve, and how Iran is responding. Whether the strikes could threaten the survival of Iran's political system established in 1979. The risks of escalation and miscalculation across Iraq, Lebanon, the Gulf, and the Red Sea. The prospects for leadership disruption, succession dynamics, and elite cohesion inside Iran. The potential roles of Russia and China as diplomatic or strategic actors. The UK's response and whether it has adopted the right approach. Key scenarios for how the conflict may evolve in the coming days.

Ukraine, its European backers and the United States have drawn closer to agreeing a blueprint for peace, but various questions remain. Can anyone accept Russian sincerity? How to treat Moscow's demands for territory in the Donbas, and beyond? And what is to be made of Russia's attitude towards security guarantees for Ukraine? In this bonus episode of GSB, we hear from a panel of experts on the prospects for peace, four years on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Their remarks were recorded during a RUSI event on Tuesday 24 February 2026: Recording: Ukraine: Prospects for Peace, Four Years After Russia's Invasion | Royal United Services Institute. In an hour-long discussion, the RUSI panellists, including Dr Neil Melvin, Director of International Security, Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, Associate Fellow and Dr Jonathan Eyal, Associate Director, tackled a wide range of questions relating to: What a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine might look like. The role of the rest of Europe in supporting Ukraine and applying pressure to Russia. Key challenges and opportunities for rebuilding Ukraine's post-war infrastructure. Become a RUSI member today to access the full recording: Membership.

Following Washington's emphasis on the Western Hemisphere in its 2025 National Security Strategy, this episode examines Cuba, Venezuela and the intensifying US-China competition in Latin America. In this episode, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Brian Fonseca, Director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University, and Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI, to assess how the Trump administration's 'America First' strategy is reshaping security and geopolitics across the Americas, and what the shift means for regional stability and US global priorities. This discussion explores: · The elevation of the Western Hemisphere to the top tier of US national security priorities. · Cuba's re-emergence as a strategic concern, including energy pressure, migration controls and intelligence considerations. · Venezuela's uncertain transition following US intervention and the risks of proxy competition. · The expansion of bilateral security agreements and US military deployments in the Caribbean basin. · The implications of this hemispheric focus for US alliances and global commitments. · Whether Latin America is becoming an arena for US-China strategic rivalry.

Rachel Ellehuus, Director-General of RUSI and transatlantic security expert, breaks down the fallout from the Greenland crisis. She discusses strained US–Europe trust, continuing negotiations, and Greenland’s strategic importance for missile warning and basing. Rachel also covers historical grievances, NATO’s limited role, and how the crisis may push Europe to de-risk ties with the US.

In this engaging discussion, Sir David Lidington, a former UK Member of Parliament and RUSI Distinguished Fellow, dives into the complexities of transatlantic relations under President Trump. He explores the implications of US interests in Greenland and the nuances of sovereignty. Lidington assesses Europe's capacity to respond to rising Russian threats and critiqued the slow pace of UK defense reforms. He also advocates for a new European security architecture that balances cooperation and independence, urging urgent action from European leaders.

Dr. Claudia Major, Senior Vice President for Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund, shares insights on Germany's dramatic shift in defense policy following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. She discusses the ambitious €100 billion rearmament plan, enhancing military capabilities and addressing urgent troop needs. Major highlights the challenges of public support and internal political dynamics affecting defense investments. Additionally, she examines Germany's evolving role in European security and its deepening defense cooperation with the UK.

Dr Burcu Ozcelik and Nicholas Hopton join Neil Melvin to discuss key insights from the Doha Forum and the shifting Middle East security landscape. In this episode, recorded at the Doha Forum 2025, Neil Melvin speaks with Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI and Nicholas Hopton, RUSI Distinguished Fellow and former British Ambassador, to discuss the state of Middle Eastern security after two years of conflict. They explore how regional and global powers are responding to the effects of these conflicts, and what a new security order might look like. Topics discussed include: The current Middle East landscape following major conflicts across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and the Gulf. Prospects for a new regional security order and pathways toward peace. How regional actors are positioning themselves diplomatically and strategically. Reactions to the new US National Security Strategy and perceptions of US engagement. Key takeaways from the Doha Forum debates on regional stability, governance and future diplomacy.

Dr. Eric Rudenshiold, a key voice on Caspian geopolitics and former NSC Director for Central Asia, shares insights on the evolving dynamics in the region. He discusses how Russia's Ukraine invasion has fostered greater cooperation among Central Asian states. With a focus on the Middle Corridor and the shifting influences of Russia and China, he assesses the role of new leadership in driving regional integration. Rudenshiold also explores the implications of renewed US engagement for future stability and economic opportunities.

Professor John Bew joins Neil Melvin to reflect on the UK's evolving global role, strategic reviews, and how Britain can navigate an era of geopolitical upheaval. Over the past decade, the United Kingdom has faced a rapidly transforming global environment marked by the rise of revisionist powers, economic disruption and the erosion of the post-Cold War international order. In response, successive governments have launched a series of major strategic reviews to redefine Britain's global role and national security priorities. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin speaks with Professor John Bew, former Foreign Policy Adviser to the UK Prime Minister. Professor Bew was the penholder on the last three UK national security strategies and was closely involved in the shaping of the most recent NATO Strategic Concept. Now back at King's College London, he reflects on how the UK has adapted to geopolitical change and what lies ahead for its foreign, defence and security policy. The discussion explores: How the global order is shifting and what this means for the UK's strategic posture. Lessons from three major UK national security reviews and their evolution. The UK's response to Russia's aggression and its separate, complex, relationship with China. The future of European security and Britain's role after Brexit. The Indo-Pacific tilt and what it reveals about the UK's global ambitions. The evolving UK-US relationship and prospects for sustaining the 'Special Relationship'. How Britain can define influence and leadership in a more competitive, multipolar world.