Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl Jack Watling: The Next Great War Is Already Taking Shape. What Happens Next Decides Everything
Apr 20, 2026
Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI and author of Statecraft, is a defence analyst focused on Iran, Taiwan, and Russia–Ukraine dynamics. He explains why Iran’s asymmetric leverage may reshape global energy and deterrence. He gives a darker read on Taiwan’s future and details how Western misreads of Moscow reshape the Ukraine war and its 2026 inflection point.
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Western Decision Making Grew Too Linear
- Post-Cold War decision processes assumed linear rules and multilateral crisis backstops, leaving governments unprepared when predictable crises arrived.
- Jack Watling observed repeated cases like Afghanistan and Ukraine where known risks produced only late crisis management with bad options.
How Iran Converts Local Power Into Global Leverage
- Iran leverages the Strait of Hormuz to coerce global trade without matching conventional forces, turning limited attacks into outsized economic leverage.
- Watling notes Iran only needs to threaten enough shipping to spike insurance and reroute trade, forcing costly US responses like escorts or strikes.
US Action Turned Hormuz Risk Into Structural Change
- US strikes on Iran made a theoretical threat practical, increasing regional risk and incentivizing firms to seek alternatives and lock long-term contracts.
- Watling warns damage to Gulf refining and wells can be permanent, prompting durable shifts in energy sourcing and infrastructure.
