Forward Guidance Money Supply Is Falling By Most Since Great Depression | Danielle DiMartino Booth
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Apr 18, 2023 
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Housing Faces Supply and Demand Pressures
- Housing demand is weakening despite lower mortgage rates; unemployment and excess supply weigh heavily.
- Many homes are owned by investors with multiple mortgages, risking increased supply on market when cashflows fail.
Sticky Core Inflation Ahead
- Core inflation may remain sticky due to lagged effects in shelter and used car prices.
- High base effects starting summer 2023 could keep CPI elevated even amid broader disinflation.
Fed Signals Mild Recession, Tightening
- Fed openly expecting a mild recession allows continued rate hikes and sustained quantitative tightening.
- Sticky unemployment and inflation data give Fed cover to maintain tightening policies amid economic risk.