Predicting the Unpredictable: Energy and Geopolitics in 2026

Predicting the Unpredictable: Energy and Geopolitics in 2026 

This week, Peter and Jackie kick off the year with their 2026 outlook. They begin by asking a fundamental question: How relevant are predictions in an increasingly unpredictable world? 

While acknowledging the limits of forecasting, they outline key themes and directional expectations for 2026—and remind leaders that, in times like these, scenario development, continuous monitoring, and course correction are far more valuable than rigid forecasts. 

The discussion focuses on four major areas shaping the outlook for Canadian energy, spanning oil and gas and clean energy technologies: 

• Global geopolitics and energy markets: examining how unfolding events in Venezuela and Iran—and ongoing tensions involving the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine—could influence global energy markets. 
• Oil and gas fundamentals: assessing the direction of oil prices and North American natural gas in 2026. 
• Technology and disruption: exploring whether electric vehicles will regain momentum, how rapidly solar deployment will continue to scale, and whether projections for AI-driven energy demand will keep accelerating. 
• Canada’s unique circumstances: politics, policy, and infrastructure—from climate policy and the Ottawa–Alberta memorandum of understanding (MOU) on an oil pipeline, to elections (and potential elections) to watch. 

While predicting the future may be difficult, one thing Jackie and Peter are confident about is that the ARC Energy Ideas podcast will be here throughout the year—helping you navigate what is shaping up to be a consequential and eventful year for energy markets and geopolitics. 

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