The Trivium China Podcast Ep 45 - China’s perspective on the trade ceasefire + 15th Five-Year Plan breakdown
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Oct 31, 2025 Kendra Schaefer, Head of tech policy research at Trivium, specializes in China's tech policy and semiconductor strategy, while Dinny McMahon leads markets research there, focusing on economics. They dive into the recent trade ceasefire, analyzing China's advantages and the truces' fragility. Kendra explains the ambitious 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the urgency for tech self-sufficiency. Dinny outlines economic priorities, emphasizing industrial upgrading and innovative sectors. Together, they reveal China's strategy in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
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Outstanding Investigations Threaten The Truce
- The truce is fragile because outstanding U.S. investigations (232/301) can trigger new tariffs that China will view as bad faith.
- Beijing wanted a broader pause on executive actions but likely won't get one, risking renewed escalation.
FYP Frames Next Five Years As Make-or-Break
- The 15th FYP signals unusually strong urgency on tech self-sufficiency and 'independent and controllable' innovation.
- Beijing frames the next five years as make-or-break for technological independence.
Extraordinary Measures Likely Amplify Current Tools
- 'Extraordinary measures' likely means intensifying existing tools (funding, tax incentives, talent) rather than a single novel policy.
- Expect bigger R&D tax breaks and state-led connectors to align firms, research, and capital on strategic bottlenecks.