The Risk Takers Podcast Small Data Problems & Gambling Twitter Actuaries w/ Mr. PeanutBettor | Ep 141
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Feb 4, 2026 Mike (Mr. PeanutBettor) — an actuary-turned-sports bettor and prominent gambling Twitter originator. He discusses trading at Deck Prism and how that shaped live and pregame strategies. Conversations cover small-data decision-making, building NBA prop models in Excel, prediction markets, scaling origination, and practical tool workflows.
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Small Data Can Deliver Big Alpha
- Small-data problems are powerful when you can isolate the handful of impactful variables.
- Manually identifying and valuing those small signals often creates early advantage.
Prototype In Excel Before Automating
- Build transparent Excel workflows first to visualize every assumption and step.
- Then automate once you understand and validate the process.
Let LLMs Code But Verify Assumptions
- Use LLMs to write code but still validate and understand core assumptions yourself.
- Keep a human-in-the-loop to catch mistakes LLMs can introduce.