The Risk Takers Podcast

Record breaking episode for most questions asked - if you asked a question and we didn't get to it, it's because this episode would have been 4 hours and we will answer on our next solo show.Today SP and GP talk about the non-obvious risks on prediction markets. As bettors we all are aware of bankroll management and betsizing tools like Kelly. But in this new world, there are more threats to your bankroll looming around every corner and being defensive is the game.We touch on FanDuel and DraftKings getting into the PM space as market makers on the exchanges - and have another great Mr. PeanutBettor question of the week.0:00 How we define risk on PMs10:40 Listener Risk Qs1:28:40 News1:48:00 Random Listener QsWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjFollow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Clay Alter, a former poker player turned prediction-market trader known as ClayA, built $1.5M+ on Kalshi using manual, live orderbook trading. He discusses shifting from promos and sports betting to prediction markets. Short takes cover market-making vs taking, finding niche markets, sizing and order strategies, and adapting as competition tightens.

A deep dive into deterministic versus probabilistic sports models and when simple Excel approaches beat full simulations. Discussion of why sims matter for complex props, live betting, and market-making tools. Coverage of prediction-market controversies, legal risks from an arrest linked to a political bet, and debates over regulation, insider trading, and platform choices.

Justin (LazyBrain64) is a professional basketball bettor who bets mainlines using manual, game-by-game handicapping informed by data dashboards. He talks about transitioning from trading desks to full-time betting. He explains blending human-adjusted model inputs with dashboards. He covers market mechanics like auto-movers, profiling bettors, rest/fatigue adjustments, and why he avoids player props.

A lively Masters recap that digs into why golf lit up prediction markets and who was trading. They unpack a last‑minute betting model, hole‑by‑hole live strategies, and how pin placement shapes retail flows. Regulatory twists, market structure innovations like DesiCent, and the evolving roles of movers, execution specialists, and proprietary models also get spirited attention.

They map practical paths for bettors of every skill level, from bonus-chasing beginners to live-model traders and market makers. They debate decimal pricing in golf and its trading implications. News items cover PM legal wins, platform risks, and product innovations. Listener questions dive into market making, model tracking, and settlement policies.

Alex (Landtrader8375), a former big‑law attorney turned advantage player and timber trader. He recounts quitting a nine‑year law career to pursue niche betting edges like first‑first‑down, prediction markets, judged events and sportsbook promos. He also tells the quirky story of monetizing timberland as a physical edge. Short, sharp stories about finding, sizing and exploiting rare mispricings.

They walk through starting an automated API trading project, from a simple balance print to CSV-driven orders and trade tapes. They explore finding liquid wide markets, building alerts and opportunity scores, and metrics to rank attractive markets. They also debate platform fees, legal risks to prediction markets, and where VC money should flow.

A deep dive into mention markets and live trading tactics. Stories about building announcer databases and pricing speeches. How coding, bots, and AI speed cross-exchange arbitrage. Practical talk on live mispricing, RFQs, and exploiting correlated award and political markets.

They dig into the emotional reality of long losing stretches and how they change decision making. There is a deep debate about showing RFQ user IDs and how that shifts market behavior. Legal and industry news, market profiling tactics, automation impacts, and practical trading adjustments round out the conversation.