Monetary Matters with Jack Farley “Deflationary Bust” A Risk From AI | Alex Gurevich’s Bull Case on Rates, “Perfect Trade” Potential in Japan, and The Risk of Artificial Intelligence Poses to Labor Market
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Mar 15, 2026 
Alex Gurevich, founder and CIO at HonTe Investments and author of The Next Perfect Trade, outlines bullish trades in platinum, palladium and copper. He warns AI could first be deflationary by automating many jobs, forcing deep Fed rate cuts and heavy stimulus. He also highlights a potential steepener in yields, a “perfect trade” opportunity in Japan, and an impending energy bottleneck from massive AI compute demand.
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AI Can Permanently Remove Certain Professional Jobs
- AI may uniquely eliminate entire categories of white-collar economic activity rather than merely transform them.
- Tasks like routine legal research or second medical opinions can become near-zero marginal-cost services, removing their GDP contribution.
Estimate Of 20 Percent Job Automation By 2030
- Alex expects roughly 20% of jobs could be automated away by the end of the decade, with more over longer horizons.
- Political resistance and attrition may slow direct layoffs, but structural displacement widens the gap before new jobs emerge.
AI Could Force Deep Cuts Then A Steeper Yield Curve
- Short-term interest rates likely fall sharply to counter AI-driven deflation and job loss, while long-term rates could rise later, producing a steeper yield curve.
- Fed cuts plus massive fiscal stimulus could push short rates near zero, then inflation may rebound forcing higher long rates.
