School of War Ep 281: Fred Kagan on the Iran War, Drone Defense, and the Future of the Middle East
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Mar 3, 2026 Fred Kagan, senior fellow at AEI known for Iran and military strategy, breaks down aerial campaigns and Iran’s shifting strike tactics. He discusses drone versus missile defense challenges and interceptor shortages. He explores lessons from Ukraine on low-cost defenses, Tehran’s weakened domestic position, and how targeting regime organs could reshape the regional order.
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Iran Focused Retaliation On Nearby Gulf Targets
- Iran shifted to attacking nearby Gulf states and U.S. positions because long-range drone strikes at Israel were proving unsustainable.
- The scale of Iranian drone packages rivals Russian peaks against Ukraine, creating a dense drone-missile threat picture.
Strike Enemy Production Not Just Incoming Salvos
- Prioritize striking drone and missile production, storage, and C2 to exhaust Iranian stocks rather than only intercepting salvos.
- Coalition attacks on launchers and depots aim to shrink future salvos and reduce interceptor consumption.
Interceptor Shortage Reveals Industrial Blindspot
- The U.S. is short on interceptors despite four years of missile-heavy warfare supporting Ukraine.
- Fred argues Pentagon leadership must prioritize mass production of ballistic interceptors now to avoid repeat shortages.