You Are Not So Smart 338 - May Contain Lies - Alex Edmans (rebroadcast)
10 snips
Apr 27, 2026 
Alex Edmans, a London Business School finance professor and author focused on trust and misinformation. He breaks down how narratives, stats, and articles mislead. Short takes cover confirmation bias, selective skepticism, black-and-white thinking, and a four-step Ladder of Misinference. Practical tips show how to spot which rung you’re on and when to seek counterarguments.
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Brains Constantly Fill Gaps With Priors
- Inference is the brain's constant guessing process that fills gaps using priors and makes ambiguous inputs feel like reality.
- David McRaney compares it to the retina blind spot and explains priors shape perception such as the dress color dispute.
Makes Sense Stopping Rule Encourages Fast, Not Perfect Thinking
- The makes sense stopping rule causes people to stop seeking evidence once an inference feels plausible.
- McRaney ties this to satisficing: we prefer speed over exhaustive accuracy because evolution favored good-enough decisions.
Deepwater Horizon Shows Motivated Reasoning Kills
- Edmans cites Deepwater Horizon where repeated failed negative pressure tests were dismissed and replaced with a passing alternative test.
- That motivated reasoning led to catastrophic disaster when engineers ignored inconvenient results.
