One Decision Trump's Iran Endgame: Will U.S. Troops Go In?
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Mar 31, 2026 A strategic dive into possible US military moves toward Iran, from seizing Kharg Island to the challenge of controlling the Strait of Hormuz. They explore whether a limited ground operation could stay contained and the logistics of seizing uranium. Analysis covers Russia’s covert support, China’s absence, and what Gulf states really want from Washington right now.
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Seizing Kharg Island As First Objective
- Sir Richard Dearlove argues the likely initial US objective is seizing Kharg Island to gain bargaining leverage.
- Taking Kharg plus securing key islands in the Strait of Hormuz would give control over oil outflow and shift negotiation power.
Kharg Is Feasible; Hormuz Is Much Harder
- Kharg Island is described as achievable with low casualties while controlling the Hormuz littoral is harder due to mountainous fortified coastlines.
- Success depends on unknown Iranian shore defenses and whether IRGC or regular forces choose to fight hard.
Uranium Extraction Is High Risk And Low Priority
- Extracting uranium by special forces is possible but extremely complex and likely Israeli-led rather than American.
- Dearlove favors economic throttling and handing material to the IAEA over risky on‑the‑ground seizures.