AI scaling pathways: on grid, on edge, off grid, off planet

30 snips

Mar 12, 2026

Jake Elder, SVP of Research and Innovation at Energy Impact Partners, specializes in built environment and data center energy issues. He walks through four compute pathways: on grid, on edge, off grid, and off planet. Short takes cover grid transmission limits, edge scalability doubts, engineering reliability for off-grid sites, and the physics and feasibility of orbital data centers.

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INSIGHT

Transmission Speed Is The Primary Grid Constraint

The grid-connected hyperscale path is chiefly constrained by transmission speed and permitting delays.
Jake Elder notes interconnection upgrades and new transmission lines often take five to seven years, while major new transmission projects can be effectively stalled for decades.

ADVICE

Bridge Transmission Gaps With Onsite Power

Use hybrid designs: stay grid-connected but bring behind-the-meter generation to bypass transmission bottlenecks.
Shayle points out many current projects already add on-site generation as a bridge while retaining eventual grid ties.

INSIGHT

Edge Wins On Speed Not Latency Or Cost

Edge compute's value is mainly about speed to market, not obvious latency or cost advantages.
Shayle Kann and Jake Elder argue latency benefits are limited and fully scaled 300 MW hyperscale sites usually have better levelized costs than many small edge sites.

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As demand for data center power skyrockets, available options to provide that power have dwindled. And cohesive frameworks for finding sustainable generation remain few and far between.

In this episode, Shayle speaks with Jake Elder, senior vice president of research and innovation at Energy Impact Partners. The two colleagues dig into the four main generation solutions — on grid, off grid, on edge, and off planet – and consider the viability of each in the years to come.

Shayle and Jake explore topics like:

A ten year forecast: Jake’s prediction for how the global "compute pie" will get split up between these four pathways
Jake’s skepticism around whether a shift towards on-device compute can scale effectively
The worsening bottleneck facing on-grid connection
Building “shock absorbers” into the infrastructure of off-grid data centers that enable them to maintain “five nines[a][b][c]” of reliability
The feasibility of making orbital data centers affordable
The logistics behind creating radiators “the size of a small town” to dissipate heat from orbital data centers

Resources:

Catalyst: PJM and ERCOT are navigating a capacity rollercoaster
Catalyst: Will inference move to the edge?
Catalyst: Who benefits from the AI power bottleneck?
Open Circuit: Are investors losing faith in the AI infrastructure frenzy?
Open Circuit: The White House AI power pledge: Political theater or policy?
Latitude Media: The data center boom is a diesel generator boom
Latitude Media: How Hitachi became a speed-to-power company

Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Max Savage Levenson, Anne Bailey, and Sean Marquand. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.

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