10-year forecast: market share estimates

As demand for data center power skyrockets, available options to provide that power have dwindled. And cohesive frameworks for finding sustainable generation remain few and far between.

In this episode, Shayle speaks with Jake Elder, senior vice president of research and innovation at Energy Impact Partners. The two colleagues dig into the four main generation solutions — on grid, off grid, on edge, and off planet – and consider the viability of each in the years to come.

Shayle and Jake explore topics like:

• A ten year forecast: Jake’s prediction for how the global "compute pie" will get split up between these four pathways
• Jake’s skepticism around whether a shift towards on-device compute can scale effectively
• The worsening bottleneck facing on-grid connection
• Building “shock absorbers” into the infrastructure of off-grid data centers that enable them to maintain “five nines[a][b][c]” of reliability
• The feasibility of making orbital data centers affordable
• The logistics behind creating radiators “the size of a small town” to dissipate heat from orbital data centers

Resources:

• Catalyst: PJM and ERCOT are navigating a capacity rollercoaster
• Catalyst: Will inference move to the edge?
• Catalyst: Who benefits from the AI power bottleneck?
• Open Circuit: Are investors losing faith in the AI infrastructure frenzy?
• Open Circuit: The White House AI power pledge: Political theater or policy?
• Latitude Media: The data center boom is a diesel generator boom
• Latitude Media: How Hitachi became a speed-to-power company

Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Max Savage Levenson, Anne Bailey, and Sean Marquand. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.

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