NAB Morning Call Aussie unemployment supports rate hike, higher tension in Middle East
Feb 19, 2026
Skye Masters, NAB markets economist and strategist, gives quick market commentary and policy perspective. She covers Australia’s steady 4.1% unemployment and why it raises RBA rate-hike odds. She also discusses surging oil prices amid increased U.S. airpower in the Middle East, moves in bonds and FX, and mixed U.S. data shaping global market sentiment.
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US Claims Confirm Low-Hire, Low-Fire Pattern
- US jobless claims fell sharply by 23,000 to 206,000, reversing recent weather-driven rises.
- Combined with payrolls, this confirms a low-hire, low-fire US labour market rather than a rapid weakening.
Unemployment Keeps RBA Tightening Odds High
- Australia's unemployment stayed at 4.1%, signalling a tighter labour market than expected.
- NAB expects the RBA to likely hike again in May due to ongoing capacity pressures.
Participation Hides True Labour Tightness
- Employment growth was modest at 18,000 and participation fell, which mechanically held the unemployment rate down.
- That makes interpreting labour strength tricky and suggests headline unemployment alone may understate capacity pressures.