Interesting Times with Ross Douthat How Far Will Trump Go in Iran?
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Mar 26, 2026 
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and longtime Iran policy hawk, lays out three phases for toppling Iran’s regime. He discusses military degradation of Iran’s missiles and nuclear paths. They debate the strategic fight over the Strait of Hormuz and whether Trump will cut a deal or press for total victory.
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Rapid Degradation Of Iran's War-Making Capabilities
- The U.S. campaign has severely degraded Iran's missile, naval, and (partly) nuclear capabilities within weeks.
- Mark Dubowitz cites zero ballistic missile production, two-thirds fewer launchers, a decimated navy, and further Israeli strikes on nuclear sites as evidence.
Victory Means Toppling The Regime Not Just Its Forces
- Total victory is defined as the end of the Islamic Republic, not merely military setbacks.
- Dubowitz wants maximum pressure, support for Iranian society, and overt/covert measures to fracture the regime's support base over time.
Three Phase Plan From Bombing To Backing Protesters
- Dubowitz outlines a three-phase path: major military operations, degradation of the repression apparatus, and maximum support for opposition.
- Phase two emphasizes decapitation and strikes on IRGC/intelligence; phase three focuses on arming and enabling street opposition.