One Decision Assessing Trump's Iran Strategy and the Russia-Ukraine Negotiations with Michael Allen
Feb 12, 2026
Michael Allen, a former NSC official and national security strategist, discusses rising US-Iran tensions and why limited US-Israeli strikes could be imminent. He explores Iran and US negotiation limits, how protests factor into strategy, Netanyahu’s push for action, and the Donbas sticking point shaping Russia-Ukraine talks. He also examines Europe’s slow defense buildup.
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Netanyahu's Visit To Block A Soft Deal
- Benjamin Netanyahu moved up his White House visit to dissuade Trump from cutting a deal with Iran.
- Michael Allen expects Israel to push hard to prevent any agreement that softens demands on missiles or terrorism.
Strikes Framed As Measurable Achievements
- Military strikes could be tailored to be 'countable' effects like degrading ballistic missile sites.
- Trump may prefer measurable results he can present as success rather than pursuing regime change.
Protesters Might See Strikes As Support
- Protesters in Iran may view U.S. strikes as supportive of their movement and against the regime.
- Michael Allen cites anecdotal reporting that Iranians 'look up to the sky' expecting U.S. action.