Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 339: Jay Pelosky on Tech Bubble (or Not), China vs. US, Clean Energy Plays
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Dec 17, 2025 In this insightful conversation, Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked strategist at Morgan Stanley, breaks down his 'Tripolar World' concept, highlighting regional integration across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. He explores the current global growth cycle driven by AI, defense, and climate initiatives. Jay contrasts the AI strategies of the US and China, emphasizing the shift to power costs as the competitive edge. He also discusses the renewables boom in Brazil and Spain, and why today’s market differs significantly from the 2000 dot-com bubble.
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Power Costs Trump Chip Quality
- The AI race is shifting from chip quality to power cost as the decisive competitive advantage.
- Cheap renewable power enables China to use many lower-quality chips and scale compute more cheaply.
Renewable Power Attracts AI Data Centers
- Countries with very low-cost renewable grids are becoming preferred AI data center locations.
- Pelosky highlights Brazil and Spain as examples that leverage clean power and connectivity to attract investment.
Invest The Digital-Physical Chain
- Invest across the digital and physical supply chain since electrification links copper, chips, data centers and grids.
- Pelosky's portfolios overweight EM equities, EM debt and commodities to capture this transition.