Is The Australian Housing Market About To Crash?

Nov 25, 2025

Is Australia facing a housing crash or just a normal phase in the 18.6-year property cycle? Discover the historical timeline from the 2007 peak to recovery in 2012, and how mid-cycle slowdowns, like COVID, fit the pattern. Learn about the 'winner's curse' and why 2024-2026 is crucial for the market. Explore how Australia fared better than the US during the GFC and the risks associated with private debt. Finally, uncover the importance of tangible assets during downturns and insights on regional vs blue-chip investments.

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INSIGHT

Four Phases Define The Cycle

Property cycles typically move through four phases: major economic event, recovery, seven-year growth and a mid-cycle slowdown.
The 'winner's curse' speculative phase often precedes a market peak, which Lachlan suggests may run into 2026.

INSIGHT

Not All Markets Fall Equally

Downturn impacts vary: shares and commercial property often plunge while Australian residential markets can be much more resilient.
Lachlan recalls Australian housing fell minimally during the GFC while US markets suffered catastrophic losses.

ADVICE

Protect Portfolios With Cash And Quality

Prioritise fundamentals: maintain cash buffers, reasonable debt-to-income and durable assets.
Lachlan recommends holding blue-chip residential assets and high cash buffers as safety during downturns.

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Is Australia heading toward a housing crash or are we simply entering the next phase of the 18.6-year property cycle?

In this episode of The Folio Property Podcast, Reece and Lachlan unpack one of the most talked-about questions in the Australian real estate:

Does the property market really move in predictable cycles?And if so… what does that mean for Australia in 2025, 2026, and beyond?

We break down the four phases of the cycle, the history behind Phil Anderson’s research, how the theory ties into US markets, and what happened in past downturns like the GFC. More importantly, we look at whether Australia is positioned for a fall, why speculation is rising, what the “winner’s curse” phase means, and whether everyday buyers should be worried or preparing for opportunity.

Whether you're an investor, first-home buyer, or simply curious about the future of Australian property, this is a grounded, data-rich conversation that cuts through the noise.

In This Episode You’ll Learn:

What the 18.6-year property cycle actually is
Why it's trending globally and why some people treat it like a “cult”
The four phases every market moves through
What happened from the 2007 peak → GFC crash → 2012 recovery
How mid-cycle slowdowns occur (and why COVID fits the pattern)
What the winner’s curse phase looks like and why 2024–2026 matters
Why Australian markets didn’t fall as hard as the US during the GFC
The truth about private debt, risk levels, and market vulnerability
Why tangible assets like property often strengthen during downturns
What smart investors do when markets dip

Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:11 Is the Australian property market going to crash?03:03 What is the 18.6 year cycle?05:59 The 4 phases of a property cycle08:55 Is Australia in major debt 11:57 The factors drive each stage of the property cycle14:07 Concerns on Self-Managed-Super-Funds (SMSF)17:45 What properties hold their value during a downturn18:54 When will the Perth property market slow down23:15 The biggest myth about property

Key Themes- Australian housing market- Global real estate cycles- Property investing fundamentals- Economic history & recessions- GFC vs Australia- Rising debt levels- Speculation risk- Market timing & long-term strategy

About the Folio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall & Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights, we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

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