The Property Podcast ASK517: Are house prices silently crashing? PLUS: How do I avoid a disaster?
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Mar 31, 2026 They unpack whether flat nominal house prices amid high inflation amount to a 'silent' real-terms crash and why policymakers might welcome it. They explain how inflation can quietly shrink mortgage debt and why that can help property investors. They also discuss switching to higher-yield properties, choosing new-builds to avoid maintenance headaches, and the critical need for tenant insurance and thorough referencing.
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Silent Property Crash Explained
- House prices can appear stable nominally while falling significantly in real terms when inflation is high.
- Rob Dix calls this the "silent property crash" and notes real prices have fallen ~20% despite small nominal gains.
Why Policymakers Might Tolerate Inflation
- Policymakers may prefer higher inflation relative to interest rates to erode real debt burdens, a form of financial repression.
- Rob Dix says this dynamic benefits governments and indebted mortgage holders because inflation reduces real debt value.
Use Inflation To Reduce Mortgage Burden
- Investors with mortgages benefit from inflation because it effectively pays down debt and reduces real mortgage balances.
- Rob Dix argues steady or modest nominal growth still helps leveraged property owners over time, especially if inflation exceeds targets.
