RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Good Friday & Dark Crosses
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Apr 3, 2026 They unpack a noisy March payrolls print and why it may be sending mixed signals to the Fed. They debate whether rising real rates or inflation fears are behind the recent risk repricing. They analyze an Iran-driven oil shock, its effect on inflation expectations, and why resolution timelines keep slipping. They also discuss market sentiment, potential triggers for an earnings reset, and where opportunity may appear after positioning shifts.
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Payrolls Send Mixed Signals On Inflation And Growth
- The March payrolls report contains conflicting signals that make it hard to read as a clear inflationary or growth signal.
- Unemployment dipped but average hourly earnings are the weakest this cycle at +3.4% YoY, implying nominal growth near 4% and limited wage-driven inflation.
Higher Yields Reflect Real Rate Rerating Not Inflation Fear
- The recent rise in nominal yields is driven more by higher real rates (a re-rating of growth) than by a meaningful increase in medium-term inflation expectations.
- Five-year forward inflation had been collapsing, so the move is a monetary policy/re-pricing of the risk-free rate, compressing P/E multiples and pressuring cyclical assets.
Oil Shock Is A Monetary Shock Waiting To Hit Earnings
- The Iran-driven oil shock is presently acting as a monetary policy shock by pushing up rates, but the growth shock hasn't fully arrived in earnings yet.
- Stocks have been resilient partly because investors expect a temporary disruption and are waiting for earnings to force revisions.