FDD Morning Brief Is Turkey Iran's successor? | feat. Reuel Marc Gerecht
Feb 9, 2026
Reuel Marc Gerecht, former CIA Iranian-targets officer and FDD scholar. He breaks down why recent Oman talks may deliver little. He discusses how Iran might retaliate and the limits of US strikes. He doubts Turkey can replace Iran regionally and explains practical limits to Turkish influence. He also examines Gulf rivalries and Saudi caution.
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Oman Talks Likely To Stall
- The Oman talks will likely produce worthless Iranian concessions rather than real change.
- Reuel Marc Gerecht expects Iran to resist serious limits and be prepared to fight.
Iran Will Likely Strike Back Selectively
- Iran will absorb damage but feel compelled to retaliate, likely against Israel and maybe U.S. bases.
- Gerecht doubts Iran will exhaust its missile stock but expects some attacks to satisfy domestic and regime pressures.
Airstrikes Won't End Iran's Repression
- U.S. strikes can hit bases and command centers but won't easily dismantle the IRGC's domestic coercive capacity.
- The key risk is whether external strikes reignite sustained domestic protests in Iran.