Geopolitical Cousins

Taco Tuesday

165 snips
Apr 9, 2026
They argue the Strait of Hormuz was already reopening as Iran monetizes traffic rather than fully closing it. They debate whether ceasefires will last and how shipping, pipelines, and flotillas reshape leverage. Taiwan politics shift after a Beijing visit and several Senate seats move into play. They note crashing German power prices and how AI tools like Claude are changing workflows.
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INSIGHT

Closing Hormuz Would Erode Iran's Leverage Fast

  • Closing Hormuz risks accelerating global responses like flotillas, pipeline CapEx, and subsidized maritime insurance that would erode Iranian leverage.
  • Marko quantifies transit math: two VLCCs (~4 million barrels) can temporarily cover flows and global reserves can cover several million more.
INSIGHT

Tolling Works Only Short Term Before CapEx Alternatives Kick In

  • Iran's toll window is finite because long disruptions prompt CapEx to bypass the strait (pipelines, alternate routes).
  • Jacob Shapiro warns that sustained instability accelerates infrastructure investments away from Hormuz.
INSIGHT

Israel Carries Most Strike Burden Against Iran

  • Israel is conducting the majority of strikes on Iran, so Tehran may judge US escalation capacity as greater than shown.
  • Marko cites strike-data (paid access) showing the US accounts for ~20% of daily attacks, Israel ~80%.
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