Toll Mechanism vs Full Closure

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot

(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter

(04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions

(05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold

(07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth

(14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives

(16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance

(18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits

(22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers

(28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity

(31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains

(38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term

(39:05) - Energy Transit Logic

(40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism

(41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades

(42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout

(43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise

(44:49) - US Forces Reality Check

(47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities

(49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China

(56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices

(59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups

(01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play

(01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift

(01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow

(01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro