CONFLICTED When Will Iran Play the Houthi Card?
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Mar 24, 2026 Nadwa Al-Dawsari, a veteran researcher and conflict analyst with 20 years in Yemen, discusses Yemeni tribal dynamics and how tribes maintain order. She unpacks Houthi ideology, recruitment and messianic leadership. She explains IRGC influence over Houthi strategy, their growing Horn of Africa presence, ties with al Qaeda, and when they might enter wider regional fighting.
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Abdelmalik Al-Houthi As Messianic Figure
- Abdelmalik al-Houthi is presented by his inner circle as an infallible, messianic leader with claims linking him to Mahdist expectations.
- Nadwa says some ideologues around him explicitly view him as al-Mahdi destined to lead armies to Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem.
How Houthis Consolidated State Power
- Houthis sustain control by inheriting state structures, seizing weapons, and ruling through repression rather than popular legitimacy.
- Nadwa outlines a nine-person Supreme Council led by Abdelmalik with IRGC and Hezbollah aides shaping decisions.
Don't Let Ceasefires Cement Houthi Strategic Gains
- Avoid peace deals that freeze Houthi control without dismantling their seaport and smuggling networks.
- Nadwa criticises the 2018 Stockholm Agreement for preventing a Hodeidah seizure and enabling later Red Sea attacks.