Turtle Talk Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 010: Stocks, Outliers, and the Geometry of Trend
Feb 1, 2026
Cole Wilcox, CIO of Longboard Asset Management, is a trend-following pro who applies systematic rules to individual U.S. stocks. He discusses why a tiny minority of companies drive market returns. Short sentences cover indices diluting signals. He explains why long-duration stock trends and absolute momentum uncover outliers. The conversation contrasts stock trend structures with futures-based CTAs.
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Episode notes
Convexity Of Classic Trend
- Classic trend-following displays enhanced convexity and can significantly outperform other trend indices during genuine multi-asset trends.
- Letting profits run without resizing captures outsized moves when market regimes favour directional trends.
Don’t Resize Away Winners
- Avoid resizing positions solely for volatility or correlation when you want to capture long-duration trends.
- Maintain rules-based conviction so you don't prematurely truncate large trending gains.
Tails Drive Trend Performance
- Tail events and multi-sigma moves create most of trend-following performance over long horizons.
- Backtests miss these tail-driven outcomes unless systems are designed to hold through long drawdowns.
