Long-horizon trends and compression regimes

Join Rich Brennan and Jerry Parker for Episode 10 of Turtle Talk, joined by special guest Cole Wilcox, CIO of Longboard Asset Management.

No Adam this month, but a deep, wide-ranging conversation covering classic trend following, equity outliers, diversification myths, and why individual stocks may offer the cleanest expression of trend.

📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025 Review
Classic Trend continues to separate from the pack, reaching new high-water marks while much of the CTA universe still lags prior peaks. We unpack dispersion, convexity, and why classic designs thrive when genuine trends emerge.

👉 Full report:
https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/

📈 What’s Moved the Needle
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and livestock trends take centre stage as multi-sigma moves remind traders where returns are actually made. The discussion cuts through daily noise to focus on long-horizon positioning, unrealised profits, and why parabolic moves signal fragility, not opportunity.

🎙 Spotlight Conversation – Cole Wilcox (Longboard Asset Management)
A deep dive into equity trend following at the individual stock level. Cole explains:

• Why most stock market returns come from a tiny minority of companies

• Why indices dilute trend signals

• How trend following stocks differs structurally from futures-based CTAs

• Why long-duration trends, not activity, drive compounding

• The case for absolute momentum over cross-sectional rotation

A rare, first-principles discussion on outliers, capitalism, and why trend following belongs inside equities.

Learn more about Cole’s work:
https://longboardfunds.com/

📘 Feature Highlight – The Fractals of Finance
Rich introduces his latest book, The Fractals of Finance, now available on Amazon, with a foreword by Jerry Parker.

The book explores why markets are fractal, why averages mislead, and why trend following works because of structure, not prediction.

👉 Available now on Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK

🌐 Episode Resources

• Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025
  https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/

• Longboard Asset Management
  https://longboardfunds.com/

• The Fractals of Finance (Amazon)
  https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK

📩 Send questions for future episodes:
https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

Closing Thought
Markets are producing moves no backtest prepared us for. Outliers are no longer rare. Systems matter. Process matters. And survival still comes before prediction.

Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.