The Property Academy Podcast Do house prices really double every 10 years?⎥Ep. 2001
Mar 4, 2025
Data-driven look at how often NZ house prices actually double over ten years. Quickest and slowest doubling examples and how timing can wildly change outcomes. Regional hotspots where prices rise most often. A debate on whether past doubling rates will continue and what reasonable future growth might look like.
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Doubling Rule Is Not Guaranteed
- From 2002 onward, house prices doubled within 10 years only 45% of the time.
- That means the 'double every 10 years' rule was wrong 55% of the time in the dataset.
Fastest And Slowest Doublings
- The fastest nationwide doubling took five years and one month between 2002 and 2007.
- The slowest doubling took almost 14 years between 2005 and 2013, disrupted by the GFC.
Rapid Boom Then Significant Drops
- In the last cycle values rose 42% in under two years and then fell about 17.8% nationally.
- Some areas like Lower Hutt dropped over 30%, hurting investors who bought at the peak.