Forward Guidance Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup
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Oct 17, 2025 
Michael Howell, a macro analyst and founder of CrossBorder Capital, dives into the intricate web of global liquidity cycles. He discusses the hidden recession and an unexpected U.S. economic rebound. Howell highlights the impact of monetary debasement on gold and Bitcoin, emphasizing that gold may signal future crypto movements. He also explores China's significant liquidity injections and the risks posed by stablecoins to financial control. Ultimately, he considers how unique today's economic landscape is, drawing parallels to 4,000 years of monetary history.
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Liquidity Leads Growth By Over A Year
- Liquidity leads economies by about 12–15 months, making liquidity a better asset-market guide than GDP.
- A pickup in real economy growth can be negative for financial assets if liquidity shifts into Main Street.
Monitor Treasury QE And Repo Tensions
- Watch for a shift to 'Treasury QE' as issuance moves to bills and funds target the real economy.
- Monitor repo tensions and bank reserves because this transition can tighten financial-market liquidity.
What Really Moves Bitcoin
- About 50% of Bitcoin's systematic moves are driven by global liquidity, with risk appetite and gold explaining much of the remainder.
- Bitcoin and gold are short-term negatively correlated but converge over the long term.
