FDD Morning Brief Is Washington too sold on Syria's new strongman? | feat. Andrew Tabler
Feb 18, 2026
Andrew Tabler, Syria expert and senior fellow with on-the-ground experience, breaks down shifting power in northern Syria. He discusses militia custody changes and risks from released detainees. He explains regional patrons vying for influence and Turkey’s leading role. He assesses al‑Shara’s gains and Washington’s gamble in relying on him.
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Northeast Syria Handover Risks ISIS Resurgence
- Andrew Tabler says large areas of northeast Syria shifted from SDF to the Al-Shara government, including ISIS detention facilities.
- He warns releases and transfers of detainees present a major gamble for counter-ISIS efforts.
Turkey Dominates Northern Patron Dynamics
- Tabler highlights competing foreign patrons jockeying for influence after Syria's leadership change, with Turkey prominent in the north.
- He cautions Ahmad Al-Shara must balance multiple neighbors and factions to remain viable.
Military Wins Don’t Guarantee Political Stability
- Tabler says Al-Shara militarily succeeded against the SDF but the SDF was politically weak, especially managing Arab tribes and Turkey pressure.
- He notes the U.S. backing was reduced, enabling a settlement favoring Damascus and Turkish interests.