“Conviction is dangerous” - Emerging Markets Hedge Fund Manager Sinan Xin

Sinan Xin manages an emerging markets tech hedge fund from New York, investing across China, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and beyond. In this conversation, he shares how he builds edge in some of the world's most volatile markets.

We discuss:

• Why conviction can become bias—and how to tell the difference
• Building durable relationships across geographies you're not from
• The evolution of edge: from reading 10-Qs at the library to AI
• Why understanding your own behavior matters more than any tool
• How to think about career decisions when everyone's chasing the same thing
• Portfolio construction strategies for managing emerging market risks
• Why the best English-speaking management teams often underperform

Sinan explains how his background—born in China, raised in the US, working in tech M&A at Lehman Brothers before it collapsed—shaped his investment philosophy. He reveals how standing up a dropshipping website taught him about e-commerce software, why he visits cattle farms at 4am, and how private market relationships help him spot public market inflection points.

The conversation turns personal as we explore career alpha vs. beta. Sinan pushes back on the idea that smart people should simply pick "the most liquid market" (like AI today), arguing that true edge comes from self-knowledge, not chasing prestigious outcomes.

For anyone thinking about investing, careers, or how to build differentiated views in efficient markets, this is a masterclass in independent thinking.