Odds on Open

Matei Zatreanu, founder of System2 and data/AI operator for hedge funds, blends generative models with expert-network automation. He breaks down LLM customization, automating qualitative interviews, causal mapping of second-order macro effects, and why top managers treat investing as a craft. The talk also covers talent constraints, multi-manager platforms, and bespoke high-end research services.

Greg Newman, founder and CEO of Onyx Capital Group and a leading oil derivatives market-maker, shares how liquidity providers navigated a market breakdown. He discusses why outright prices mislead, the shift to manual pricing and time spreads, reading physical players like refiners and airlines, and using options flow and off-hours order flow as superior signals.

Annie Duke, legendary poker champion and decision scientist, offers a lively tour of decision-making under uncertainty. She explains bets as resource allocations and why judging choices by outcomes is misleading. Topics include expected value thinking for careers and startups, using base rates and reference classes, mental time travel to reduce discounting, and balancing luck with process.

Zachary A. Levitt, founder and manager of a capacity-constrained multi-manager fund focused on niche relative-value and arbitrage strategies. He explains screening for repeatable niche PMs, inverse-vol weighting with discretionary overlays, sizing around micro-regimes, and running a lean, performance-aligned platform that targets liquidity gaps ignored by larger funds.

Kirk McKeown, founder and CEO of Carbon Arc and former senior research operator at Glenview and Point72, shares how alpha shifts with market structure and tooling. He talks about building repeatable research processes, why data structure and hit-rate systems matter, the role of fieldwork and analogs, and how inventory and pricing data become core competitive inputs.

Alfonso Pecatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and Palinuro Capital and former senior PM at ING, unpacks money-creation frameworks and a macro trading edge. He contrasts central bank reserves with real-economy money, explains why bank lending and fiscal deficits matter, and discusses risk-sizing, avoiding hidden correlations, and the brutal realities of launching a macro hedge fund.

Andrew Courtney, former SIG senior trader turned Kalshinomics founder and Substack writer. He recounts staring at banks of screens, SIG’s poker-forging of probabilistic thinking, and the shift from pit to electronic trading. He explores finding edge in prediction markets, using AI for obscure forecasts, sizing bets with Kelly thinking, and why some markets misprice thanks to hype and liquidity quirks.

Sinan Xin, an emerging markets tech investor and hedge fund manager who bridges China, the US and Latin America, discusses building edge across volatile markets. He covers why conviction can become bias, how durable cross-border relationships reveal inflection points, the evolution of research from paperwork to AI tools, and why self-knowledge and behavioral discipline matter more than chasing trends.

Alix Pasquet, a hedge fund manager and former professional gambler who avoids AI tools, argues for analog training for analysts. He discusses how constraints spur creativity. He covers predator-prey market dynamics, inspectional reading and frameworks for sharper judgment. He warns AI can push teams toward consensus and erode core analytical skills.

Cláudia Quintela, founder of Vibe Advisors with 25 years in hedge fund advisory, shares her insights on why 20% of hedge funds fail in their first year. She emphasizes the importance of understanding motivation for starting a fund and highlights what investors seek in a strategy. Cláudia discusses the necessity of thorough preparation for capital raising, effective communication, and creative negotiation techniques. She offers practical advice on managing investor relationships and stresses the value of networking and long-term relationship building.