NAB Morning Call Courting global tariffs as US GDP takes a hit
Feb 22, 2026
Rodrigo Catril, NAB markets economist who analyses global markets and trade policy. He breaks down the Supreme Court ruling and the US pivot to a global 15% tariff. They cover the hit to US Q4 GDP and resilient Aussie dollar. They also review rising core PCE and surprising strength in global PMIs.
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Court Ruling Forces US Tariff Reset
- The Supreme Court struck down most tariffs under the IEPA, forcing a legal pivot to a temporary 15% global tariff under Section 122.
- That affects roughly two thirds of collected tariff revenue, with NAB estimating about $170bn exposed and big uncertainty on product and country exemptions.
Temporary 150 Day Tariff Window Creates Uncertainty
- The administration moved to a 15% global tariff under Section 122 for 150 days, planning to use Section 301 afterwards for permanence.
- Implementation is legally and administratively complex, so how long tariffs actually last and who is exempt (e.g., Australia, specific goods) remains unclear.
Markets Rally Despite Tariff Ambiguity
- Markets initially reacted risk‑positively to the tariff news, with consumer discretionary and big tech stocks rallying despite ambiguity over beneficiaries.
- That rally may reflect a 'wait and see' stance and belief tariffs could be renegotiated into a grand deal rather than immediate economic benefit.