UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More policy insights'
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Sep 22, 2025 Exports from South Korea dipped in early September, driven mainly by softer demand from the US and China, despite strong semiconductor sales. The podcast also highlights political uncertainties surrounding a proposed $100,000 fee for H‑1B visas and its economic ramifications. Additionally, central bank discussions reveal a mixed landscape, with the Bank of England showing limited impact, while insights into Fed Governor Mirren’s pessimism raise concerns about possible rate cuts and a looming recession.
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Korea Exports Show Underlying Softness
- South Korean exports fell in early September after adjusting for working days, showing underlying weakness.
- Exports to the US and China were weaker while semiconductor sales remained a bright spot.
Chips Could Extend Export Strength
- Strong chip exports may sustain Korea's export growth as US onshoring faces immigration delays.
- Immigration-related delays in US chip capacity could prolong semiconductor demand from Korea.
Potential H-1B Costs Risk Long-Term Growth
- Confusion over a reported $100,000 H-1B fee created short-term anxiety but likely won't change immediate work rights.
- In the long run, higher skilled immigration costs could reduce US productivity and deter inward investment.