Carry, Calendar Spreads, and Climate: Bruce Sinclair on the Future of Grain Markets

Feb 26, 2026

Bruce Sinclair, a South African grain spread trader and founder of Brent Trading, talks from his off-grid game farm. He covers carry trades and calendar spreads, why spreads can reduce risk, strict 10% drawdown rules, global grain drivers like Brazil and China, and how climate and geopolitics are reshaping seasonality and future volatility.

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ANECDOTE

From South African Farms To Spread Trading

Bruce built his edge trading South African white maize spreads on a thin local exchange before focusing on Chicago grains.
He leveraged agricultural background, Department of Agriculture work, and early JSE electronic trading to transition into spread trading in 2002.

insights

INSIGHT

Why Carry Calendar Spreads Reduce Volatility

Bruce Sinclair prefers calendar carry spreads because they reduce outright futures volatility while letting you earn a predictable roll benefit.
He buys nearby and sells forward (3–4 months) to get paid for storage and interest costs, treating carry as a low-risk, patient trade.

insights

INSIGHT

Spreads Work Until Macro Shocks Reverse Them

Spreads can blow up in crisis states, so being long carry (not short) is generally safer for grain traders.
Sinclair cites the Ukraine wheat shock where backwardation spiked and their stops exited before a larger blow-up.

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Bruce's South African Base and Background

00:15 • 4min

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South African Agriculture and Early Markets

04:04 • 9min

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Why Brent Trading Focused on Spreads

12:51 • 49sec

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How Carry Trades Work in Grains

13:40 • 4min

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Risks: When Spreads Blow Up

17:23 • 2min

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Strict Risk Rules and 10% Drawdown Limit

19:15 • 5min

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Commodities Don't Always Hedge Inflation

24:29 • 5min

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Brent's Traded Contracts and Soybean Dynamics

29:10 • 4min

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Trading Global Markets from South Africa

33:25 • 3min

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Filtering Noise: Politics and China

36:21 • 3min

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Operational Challenges and South African Perception

38:55 • 4min

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Off-grid Life and Breeding Game

42:28 • 4min

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Outlook: Seasonality, Climate, and 2026 Volatility

In this episode of The Derivative, host Jeff Malec talks with South African grain spread trader Bruce Sinclair (Brent Trading) about how he went from a farming background to running a spread-focused commodities program trading Chicago grains from a remote game farm in South Africa. Bruce explains, in plain language, how carry and calendar spreads work, why he believes spreads offer a more manageable risk profile than outright futures, and how he enforces a hard 10% annual drawdown limit for investors. They dig into the realities of global grain markets with Brazil, Argentina, China, and geopolitics in the mix, why commodities aren’t the clean inflation hedge many think they are, and how climate and structural changes are reshaping seasonality. Bruce also shares stories from his off-grid life breeding rhinos and rare game, navigating South African politics and crime, and why he thinks 2026 could bring much more volatility to grain markets than 2025… SEND IT!

Chapters:

00:00-00:01:01= Intro

01:02-12:34= From South African Farms to Grain Spreads: How Bruce Built His Ag Trading Edge

12:35-24:22 = Carry Trades, Calendar Spreads, and Risk Rules: Inside Bruce’s Grain Strategy

24:23-33:15= Commodities, Inflation Myths, and the Soybean–Oil–Meal Puzzle

33:16-46:03= Politics, Perception, and Life Off-Grid: Running a Trading Firm from Rural South Africa

46:04-54:53= Weather, Brazil, and the Limits of Data: Why Bruce Still Trusts Spreads

Follow along with Bruce on LinkedIn and be sure to check out Brent Trading's website: brent.za.net!

Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

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