Outlook: Seasonality, Climate, and 2026 Volatility

In this episode of The Derivative, host Jeff Malec talks with South African grain spread trader Bruce Sinclair (Brent Trading) about how he went from a farming background to running a spread-focused commodities program trading Chicago grains from a remote game farm in South Africa. Bruce explains, in plain language, how carry and calendar spreads work, why he believes spreads offer a more manageable risk profile than outright futures, and how he enforces a hard 10% annual drawdown limit for investors. They dig into the realities of global grain markets with Brazil, Argentina, China, and geopolitics in the mix, why commodities aren’t the clean inflation hedge many think they are, and how climate and structural changes are reshaping seasonality. Bruce also shares stories from his off-grid life breeding rhinos and rare game, navigating South African politics and crime, and why he thinks 2026 could bring much more volatility to grain markets than 2025… SEND IT!

Chapters:

00:00-00:01:01= Intro

01:02-12:34= From South African Farms to Grain Spreads: How Bruce Built His Ag Trading Edge

12:35-24:22 = Carry Trades, Calendar Spreads, and Risk Rules: Inside Bruce’s Grain Strategy

24:23-33:15= Commodities, Inflation Myths, and the Soybean–Oil–Meal Puzzle

33:16-46:03= Politics, Perception, and Life Off-Grid: Running a Trading Firm from Rural South Africa

46:04-54:53= Weather, Brazil, and the Limits of Data: Why Bruce Still Trusts Spreads

Follow along with Bruce on LinkedIn and be sure to check out Brent Trading's website: brent.za.net!

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