NAB Morning Call Running for Cover
Mar 1, 2026
Taylor Nugent, NAB markets economist and strategist, offers crisp market analysis and macro commentary. They dissect market reactions to strikes on Tehran and the sudden oil and gold moves. They unpack Strait of Hormuz shipping risks and fallout from a UK mortgage lender collapse. They also parse PBOC FX tactics and preview a huge week of global data.
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Immediate Market Shock From Tehran Strikes
- The Tehran strikes created an immediate risk-off market reaction with equities down and safe havens up.
- Phil Dobby and Taylor Nugent note oil, gold and bonds moved sharply as investors priced heightened Middle East disruption.
Pizza Spike Near Pentagon And Bitcoin Bounce
- Unusual market signals included a notable spike in pizza orders near the Pentagon and bitcoin briefly dipping then recovering.
- Phil Dobby mentions the pizza spike and Bitcoin fell ~3.7% then reclaimed losses over the weekend.
Strait Of Hormuz Drives Oil Risk Not Iran Exports
- Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, not Iran's direct exports, is the main risk because ~20% of global crude transits there.
- Taylor Nugent highlights insurance and shipping stoppages mean cargoes effectively can't move even if official closures aren't declared.