NAB Morning Call US inflation slows faster, but still a bit to go
Feb 15, 2026
Taylor Newton, NAB markets economist who analyzes inflation and monetary policy. He breaks down why a cool US inflation print sent yields lower. He explains persistent services inflation, revised RBA timing and scenarios that could push rates back up. He previews global data risks from the UK, Japan and Canada.
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Services Inflation Is The Real Surprise
- Australian headline CPI rose to 3.0% year-on-year but the real concern is stronger services inflation in the mid-quarter detail.
- Stronger services components signal upside risk to the RBA's Q3 trim mean inflation and higher-than-expected domestic price pressures.
Persistence Of Services Inflation Is Unclear
- The services inflation surprise is puzzling because labour market indicators haven't pointed to a clear turning point.
- That raises uncertainty about how persistent the higher service pricing will be going forward.
Wait For Labour Data Before Pricing Cuts
- Expect the RBA to sit pat longer if third-quarter inflation confirms the services strength and trim mean surprises to the upside.
- Markets and policymakers should wait for further labour market data before presuming cuts, according to NAB's revised timing.