NAB Morning Call Fed on hold for how long? RBA hike even more likely
Jan 28, 2026
Sally Auld, NAB markets economist and strategist who explains central bank moves, breaks down the Fed’s cautious hold and why timing of further easing is unclear. She highlights Australia’s surprise Q4 CPI and why an RBA hike looks likelier. They also cover currency chatter around the yen, geopolitics boosting gold and oil, and looming tech earnings that could test the AI narrative.
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Fed Holds But Leaves Door Open
- The Fed held rates with two dissenters preferring a 25bp cut, signalling no consensus on near-term easing.
- The statement kept cuts possible but gave no timing, leaving markets uncertain about how long the pause will last.
Data Point Toward Fed Tightening Risk
- Stronger growth, falling jobless claims and stubborn inflation complicate the Fed's next move.
- Those factors could argue for higher rates, not just further cuts, over the next three to six months.
Q4 CPI Raises RBA Hike Odds
- Australia's Q4 trim mean CPI printed 0.9%, above the RBA's November forecast, strengthening the case for a hike.
- RBA officials will weigh broader growth, labour and capacity constraints before acting next week.